Survivor Caramoan: Week 10 Power Rankings

This week’s episode was very strange and very entertaining. We saw Dawn lose her teeth and her mind, Brenda and Erik both had confessionals, and a three person alliance was entirely protected from immunity, leaving the majority alliance to scramble right in the middle of tribal council.

Jeff Probst was raving about this season while Philippines was still airing, and I’m beginning to understand why. In my opinion, the past three episodes have been the three best of the season so far. This season has very interesting group dynamics, conflicting alliances and relationships within alliances. These will all undoubtedly unfold further down the line and I believe we’re in store for a very interesting ending to this season. However, quite often we see seasons begin to settle down a little before the last few weeks. Let’s hope this season doesn’t follow that trend.

Player of the Week: Malcolm Freberg

Malcolm’s double idol play was one of the biggest power plays in Survivor history, and it made for one of the best tribal councils ever. There’s a lot of different opinions floating around about the decisions Malcolm made last night. Personally, I think targeting Phillip was exactly the right move. Every single player was hoping to take Phillip to the end because they knew they could beat him, so by removing him from the game, you shake up everybody’s plans and create the biggest fracture within the majority alliance. People also have to keep in mind that we have no idea how long it was before tribal that Malcolm found the second idol, and how much time the amigos had to plan. This move is the definition of playing to win, and while I don’t believe it will get Malcolm to the end, but I do believe it will get him a third chance to play this game.

Movers and Shakers:

+ 2 Malcolm Freberg  

+ 1 Reynold Toepfer 

+ 1 Brenda Lowe

- 1 Phillip Shepard

- 1 Dawn Meehan

- 2 Sherri Beithman 

10. Phillip Shepard (Last Week: 9th)

One thing I always hate to see in Survivor, is people accepting their fate, and not fighting to stay in the game when their back is up against the wall. When the bromigos threw Phillip under the bus, he instructed his alliance to stick to the plan, force Malcolm and Eddie to play their idols, and let them vote for him. Even though Phillip was almost certain to go home no matter what he did, he has to at least try. However, out of devotion to Stealth R Us, or a lack of care, or perhaps just stubbornness, Phillip has joined the jury. Throughout this season, Phillip has been rude, unpleasant, disrespectful, delusional, and a bully. Ultimately, this behaviour was his undoing. Call it karma, call it justice, call it unlucky, call it whatever you want, the one thing it undeniably was, is good television.

9. Reynold Toepfer (Last Week: 10th)

Reynold was a marked man before the immunity challenge. He was the unanimous first choice of the Stealth R Us alliance. Now that Malcolm has made such a bold powerful move, I’m convinced Reynold has moved back one spot on the chopping block, assuming the bromigos can’t find any recruits.

8. Sherri Beithman (Last Week: 6th)

Ever since Shamar’s medivac, Sherri has been nothing more than a floater. The only real scheming we’ve seen from her has been to try drag a goat to the end. However, this plan was inherently flawed since there will almost certainly be a final three and everybody except Phillip would most likely have beaten her. It seems as though Sherri may be a one-trick pony and now that Phillip’s gone, she’s lost her only strong connection to Stealth R Us.

7. Eddie Fox (Last Week: 7th)

Eddie is one lucky man. I don’t think you could argue that Malcolm saved Eddie this week, and how, he will most likely stick around for at least a little while longer. Eddie was only targeted this week because Reynold and Malcolm were both protected. Stealth R Us have made it clear that they are much less worried about him than they are Malcolm or Reynold.

6. Malcolm Freberg (Last Week: 8th)

Malcolm may have saved his alliance for this week but it still looks unlikely they’ll be able to rally the numbers, though that’s not to say all hope is lost. Sherri is a very possible recruit. Her game plan is to take the worst players with her to the end. So far, she’s proven to not think very highly of Reynold, or Eddie at all, and she may believe that they would be the easiest players to beat at the end. Furthermore, with Phillip gone, she’s clearly on the outs of her alliance and really doesn’t have much to lose. Erik is absolutely playing an under-the-radar game. In the past, he has proven to be paranoid, and he is still scarred from the rather cruel number the women of Micronesia pulled on him. Perhaps he’ll feel more comfortable working with his fellow bros. Perhaps his vote for Phillip this week was a sign he’s ready to turn this game on its head. A rather unsuspecting potential recruit is Andrea. Every week, it’s becoming more and more clear that her alliance is threatened by her and does not intend to take her to the end. With her closest ally gone, she may feel more comfortable working with the boys that she clearly has bonded with. There are a number of avenues for Malcolm to work, and it’s absolutely possible he may take control of this game, and if he does he will absolutely be the man to beat in this game. If I were a betting man though, my money would be on Stealth R Us to prevail.

5. Erik Reichenbach (Last Week: 5th)

Erik is quite a unique player in that he seems to actively avoid strategy. In Micronesia, he learnt that he is not a very good strategist, and because of this, he seems to be avoiding it as if it were a disease. This is a very dangerous approach, because when it comes to the final tribal council, it’s hard to convince the jury you deserve the million when you didn’t succeed in the three major aspects of the game, social, physical, and strategic. However, it has worked in the past, most notably for Jud ‘Fabio’ Birza, but I don’t believe it’s possible unless you have a particularly bitter jury, or a very week final two or three.

4. Dawn Meehan (Last Week: 3rd)

As we get closer and closer to the finish, Dawn’s chances seem to be getting worse and worse. Dawn has screwed over a lot of people after they have confided in her, and though people have won this way, I don’t know if Dawn could, purely because of the way she carries herself and the jury’s perception of her. If a young charismatic guy like Malcolm were to screw you over, you’d feel he outplayed you, but when a mom of 6 adopted children screws you over, you feel she hurt and betrayed you. If Dawn wants to win, she needs to stop crying, stand up and own this strong cut throat game she’s playing.

3. Brenda Lowe (Last Week: 4th)

We’re starting to see that Brenda is perhaps in a stronger position than suspected. Last week, everyone was happy for her to win immunity, and this week, we saw Dawn crying for her help to find her retainer. This tribe has plenty of strong swimmers, but it was Brenda whom she confided in. Brenda may be in a stronger position than suspected, but based purely on the editing, it’s safe to assume that she doesn’t win.

2. Andrea Boehlke (Last Week: 2nd)

Of all the members of the Stealth alliance, Andrea certainly has the toughest road to the end. Everyone recognises her as the strategist and the biggest threat of her alliance. However, if she can take her alliance to final 6 and get rid of Erik, she has a great shot at dominating immunity, when her competition includes Cochran, Dawn, Sherri, and an injured Brenda. Andrea is a thoroughly underrated challenge competitor. If Andrea can make it to the end, she could beat almost anyone for the million.

1. John Cochran (Last Week: 1st)

Cochran is certainly playing great in terms of the fact that everyone sees his value and no one wants to get rid of him. However, in the past few weeks, a number of people have stepped out in front of him as jury threats, such as Malcolm and Andrea. If Cochran is to win, he’ll need to either get rid of these threats or step up his own game.

Written by Robert Milner.

Credit: CBS

Survivor Caramoan: Week 9 Power Rankings

Last week's rankings

Movers and Shakers:

+4 Eddie Fox

- 1 Malcolm Freberg

-3 Michael Snow

Player of the Week: Andrea Bhoelke

She's established herself as the leader of 'Stealth R Us' and the bond she's formed with Eddie turned out to be pivotal as it is effectively what saved her from going home tonight.

11. Michael Snow (Last Week: 8th)

I was a little disappointed with Michael to be honest. Based on the earlier episodes and his cast profile, I had a good feeling about Michael. He seemed very clever, observant and very likable, and I’ll even go as far as to say he reminded me of Richard Hatch. However, as the game progressed, we saw him fade a little into the background. The cogs were turning, he was aware of what was going on, but we never saw him step up and really try take any control. Michael was reasonably unfortunate to be sent packing this week. Due to idol fear, he was targeted simply because he was unlikely to be targeted.

10. Reynold Toepfer (Last Week: 10th)

Reynold is totally Malcolm’s bitch. Aside from that, he’s very screwed right now.

He’s a huge immunity threat, and he now has no idol. However, there are a number of factors that may save him for a short while. 1. He clearly has a knack for finding idols, and it’s more than likely that another will come into circulation now. 2. He has a very good chance of winning immunity. 3. His play at tribal makes him look gullible, malleable, and very loyal. These are all attributes that make him look much less threatening, and may keep the targeted off his back for a vote or two, but ultimately, no one wants to let this guy get close to the end because of his challenge prowess.

9. Phillip Shepard (Last Week: 9th)

It’s becoming more and more apparent every week that Phillip isn’t respected and is everyone’s goat. I hope that somewhere down the line, there’ll be unclear vote and the powers left in the game agree to get rid of their mutual pawn. Otherwise, it seems unlikely Phillip will be voted out at all.

8. Malcolm Freberg (Last Week: 7th)

I believe this week will be make-or-break for Malcolm. His play in tribal council (a Survivor first) leaves him in a very precarious position. He has the option of approaching the ‘Stealth R Us’ alliance and claiming he voted for Reynold because he thought that was their plan, and try save face with the team that holds the cards. However, this will more than likely only make him appear two faced and even less trustworthy. Furthermore, this will not bode well with his bros, Reynold and Eddie. One thing’s for sure, he’s safe for at least one more week since he still has his own idol. Other than that, the future doesn’t look too bright for Malcolm.

7. Eddie Fox (Last Week:11th)

Eddie made a huge blunder in confiding in Andrea. He effectively ended Michael’s game and most likely his own. However the flipside of this is that he has made himself a valuable ally in the eyes of Andrea, a very powerful player at this moment. It’s unlikely this will help him long term, but I suspect it may be enough to help him outlast the other remaining bros.

6. Sherri Beithman (Last Week: 6th)

At the moment, Sherri is playing a fantastic second place game. We saw her this week talking about Phllip being her Shamar (Even though Shamar was her Phillip) and while she would certainly beat Phillip in a final three, she needs to worry about who the other person she’ll be sitting next to is. There are no other goats to be found on this island, she needs to step up and prove that she’s worthy of everyone’s vote. While she has a lot of time to make some moves, at the moment, she’s not showing any signs of doing so.

5. Erik Reichenbach (Last Week: 5th)

“Bug”

4. Brenda Lowe (Last Week: 4th)

The girl wins immunity and we still hear nothing from her. The editing this season has possibly been the worst in Survivor history. We’ve seen Nicaragua, we know the wheels are turning, we know Brenda’s got something to say, and we want to hear it.

3. Dawn Meehan (Last Week: 3rd)

I’m starting to think Dawn’s game may be falling apart. As positive as it is for her that everyone feels they can trust her, now that the jury is forming, it is equally pejorative if she continues to screw over people after they’ve confided in her. It’s bizarre, but Dawn’s kind of a villain at this point. You can see this is really wearing on her as she’s on the verge of tears nearly every week. Dawn’s a very sensitive person and I don’t think she’s cut out for this approach to the game, though it isn’t a bad one at all. Almost every strategy can work in the game of Survivor, and that’s part of the magic of it. However, not every strategy will work for every player.

2. Andrea Boehlke (Last Week: 2nd)

This episode was a true eye opener in regards to Andrea. It became abundantly clear that she is the one leading ‘Stealth R Us’ when it comes to strategy. When Eddie told her she's being targeted her, she decided she wanted her group to make the safe vote and vote for Michael. Phillip, Cochran, and Dawn all stated they wanted to vote for Malcolm but nonetheless  they did what she said. She’s the one pulling the strings but unfortunately for her, it appears everyone is aware of this. Andrea should be concerned that this is the second time she’s nearly been voted out but if she makes it to the end, it all just makes for a better argument to the jury.

1. John Cochran (Last Week: 1st)

Another episode of Survivor, another few days of holiday for Cochran. Still nobody targets him and still everybody is getting along with him. We even saw the bros trying to recruit Cochran through macho comradery after they won their reward, though Cochran is anything but macho or a bro. What a bunch of numskulls.

Written by Robert Milner.

Credit: CBS

Survivor Caramoan: Week 8 Power Rankings

Why I haven't written my weekly power rankings for the past three weeks

To anyone who’s wondering, for the past three weeks I’ve stopped writing my weekly power rankings for two reasons. Firstly, I began to feel as though writing these rankings weekly was somewhat pointless considering that for some many players, we’ll see very little of from week to week. Secondly, I recently returned to University for a new semester and for a few weeks, I was slack as I was adjusting to my new schedule. In summary, now that my favourite part of this game, the merge has finally come, I will return to writing my weekly power rankings. And now for the part that some people actually care about:

Player of the Week:

Gif of the Week:

The Rankings

12. Corinne Kaplan

Since the tribe swap, we’ve seen the feud between Corinne and Phillip reach fever pitch. It was clear that once the merge came, these two would be going after each other soon enough. Corinne did a fantastic job this week of getting herself voted out. She made two huge mistakes that sealed her fate. Firstly, she tried to convince Phillip not to split the vote between the big fish, Reynold and Eddie. She should have recognised it was possible some recruits of the “Brolliance” may have been playing both sides, and if “Stealth R Us” were to split their vote, the “Brolliance” would still have the numbers to get rid of Sherri. Secondly, she let Dawn in on the plan. She knows Dawn has a close bond with Cochran and she should have known that Dawn would repeat this information to her number 1 ally.

11. Eddie Fox

Eddie and Reynold have been attached at the hip this whole season. The two are more or less in the exact same position within the tribe’s social structure. The preview for this week’s episode is hinting at a showmance between Andrea and Eddie but the previews can be so misleading. Frankly, I wouldn’t really have paid any attention to it if Jeff hadn’t previously stated there’s a showmance within this season. If ‘Stealth R Us’ notice a budding romance, it could help Eddie get in their good graces, but it’s much more likely to just put a big ol’ bullseye on his back. Eddie, you have Rob & Amber to blame for that.

10. Reynold Toepfer

Reynold is your archetypal early merge boot. He’s a huge immunity threat, he’s on the wrong side of the numbers, and he’s a pot stirrer. He does have a few things going for him though. He has a hidden immunity idol, and he is very capable of winning individual immunity. However this merged group is one of the most physically capable ever to be seen I believe. Considering the size of this merged group and the competition he’s up against, an immunity run is near impossible. Reynold’s only real hope of making it deep is a polarizing rift within the majority alliance. Considering how fragile and malleable the majority alliance is, the mental state of Phillip, and the budding romance of Eddie and Andrea. There are a number of possible avenues for recovery but Reynold will have to be extremely perceptive if he is to capitalise on any of them.

9. Phillip Shepard

Phillip’s in the majority alliance and simply should not be this low in my power rankings but I believe he’s the only person in the game who already has lost any chance of winning. Socially, he has played so poorly that I believe there is no final 3 or final 2 scenario where he can win. At this point, he has already made too many enemies and lost the respect of too many players to ever receive enough votes to win the game. Of course, we’ve seen enemies become great friends in this game, and people have regained respect from their tribemates in very short time spans, but Phillip’s idea of damage control leaves much to be desired, and I don’t believe he has any chance of navigating his way into a winning position.

8. Michael Snow

Of the four members of the ‘Broliance’, Michael is perceived to be the least threatening because he’s the smallest physical threat and he’s the least ‘bro-ish’.  Furthermore, with Corinne, Julia, and Matt now gone, he has no allies left and therefore no power left. For now, he is extremely unthreatening. I also believe he’ll be able to work his way into favour with a number of members of the majority alliance. His relationship with Sherri was always positive, he can appeal to Dawn and Andrea’s sensitive side, and he can appeal to Cochran, Brenda, and Phillip’s intellectual side. His biggest concern is how much Phillip, Cochran, and Dawn will take it to heart that he effectively flipped on them. I suspect that with enough time and damage control, Michael may be able to repair those relationships. In summary, Michael is the best situated of the minority alliance to be taken along for the ride.

7. Malcolm Freberg

If Malcolm’s plan had worked and his core had come out with the numbers, Malcolm would be sitting so clearly at number 1 in my rankings without any signs of anyone looking nearly as golden as him. But instead, he’s in a minority alliance and he’s lost his closest ally, Corinne. Malcolm could be targeted next if ‘Stealth R Us’ are feeling particularly vengeful and hurt by his betrayal, but I don’t suspect they will because he can place a great deal of the blame on Corinne and I don’t think they can deny he was on the outside of that alliance. I believe the majority alliance will target Reynold and Eddie before Malcolm simply because they know Malcolm better and would feel they have a better relationship and a better read on him. Combine this with his idol, his knowledge of Reynold’s idol, his social charm, and strategic acumen, and Malcolm may just be able to wheel and deal a new majority alliance with whatever cards are left in the game. Malcolm has a lot of recovering to do now, but I believe he’s the best suited to forge a comeback like this of anyone out there on the island.

6. Sherri Beithman

Sherri was in a terrible position going into the tribe switch and she should consider herself very lucky to have been put on a switched tribe that was so strong at challenges. Now that the merge has come and she voted with the majority, we can suspect she’ll be safe for a few more weeks at least. However, I doubt she’s in anyone’s final 3 plans and she has no close ally within her new alliance. She has bought herself a little more time in the game now though and perhaps she’ll be able to weave her way a little closer into the fold.

 

5. Erik Reichenbach

Erik turned out to be a swing vote last night and I think he made what was probably the right decision for him personally. He had the opportunity to go with the other athletes but ultimately chose to stick with ‘Stealth R Us’. Though Erik may not have any strong alliances with anyone, I believe he’s well situated to go deep in this game. If they allow him to get anywhere near final 3, he has a very good chance to go on an immunity streak when his competitors include Cochran, two old ladies, an injured Brenda, and a tubby lunchbox.

4. Brenda Lowe

Brenda recorded her seventh consecutive episode without a confessional this week, setting a Survivor record. The Survivor production crew have turned her into a non-entity out there and frankly, I don’t understand why at all. In Nicaragua, she was a total schemer with a great social game. Brenda is very perceptive and very intelligent. I’m certain she’s had a lot to say about the game so far, and I’m certain she’s been calculating and planning too, but for some reason, we haven’t seen any of it. In turn, I don’t really know where she stands and how people are perceiving her. I believe all the members of ‘Stealth R Us’ have some trust in her but to what degree, I have no idea.

3. Dawn Meehan

Dawn’s is playing a subtly cut throat game this time. Everybody seems to feel they can trust her and give her just a little too much information, and then she goes behind your back and uses that information to get you booted out. We saw it first with Francesca, again with Julia who had only known Dawn for a few days, and now again with Corinne. Not to mention, the preview for next week seems to suggest that Malcolm may fall into the exact same trap. Dawn’s previous season, her motherly demeanour, and perceived mental weakness has left her in a great position socially. Almost everyone feels they can trust her and rely on her. I only wonder how long she can continue to have everyone’s trust.

2. Andrea Boehlke

So far, Andrea has done a great job straddling the fence and keeping herself in the middle which is where you ideally want to be in this game. As much as you want to be a threat to win the game, you never want to be the biggest threat, and as much as you want to be able to win immunity, you don’t want to be the best at winning immunity. This extends into almost every facet of the game. The great risk in playing the middle is that it might not be enough in the end to get you the win. Great examples of this are Amanda Kimmel and Stephen Fishbach. Both these players could have won this game had they flipped at the appropriate time. I suspect there will come a time (final 7 or 5) where Andrea will have an opportunity to flip and take out Cochran or Dawn or whoever’s left that may beat her in a final tribal council. For her sake, I hope she recognises this and makes what is the correct strategic decision.

1. John Cochran

Socially, no one could ever dream of being in a better position than Cochran right now. After winning individual immunity, he gloated and paraded around the kind of way that would get anyone else voted out the very next opportunity, but because he’s lovable unthreatening Cochran, everyone thought it was funny and was actually happy for him to win. We’re seeing a whole new Cochran this season. Ostensibly, he’s still the wide eyed self-deprecating kid that no one’s threatened by, but behind the scenes, he has this new found confidence that is absolutely vital to win this game. Last time, he was perceptive and very aware of the social dynamics around him but he never had that confidence or focus to act and take control. In South Pacific, he was still watching Survivor, in Caramoan, he’s finally playing.

Written by Robert Milner.

Credit: CBS