Survivor Caramoan: Week 2 Power Rankings

Last week's power rankings

Player of the week: Sherri Beithman

High jumps of the week: 

Sherri Beithman (+5) Brenda Lowe (+2), Matt Bischoff (+2), Malcolm Freberg (+2)

Free falls of the week:
Dawn Meehan (-3), Reynold Toepfer (-2), Andrea Bhoelke (-2) Michael Snow (-2)

19. Allie Pohevitz (Last Week: 19)

I had her pegged at 19^th last time and sure enough, she was voted out this week. After the fans lost immunity, Allie was always going to be in a bad position. She was the weakest link of a minority alliance in terms of challenge prowess. She got far too close to Reynold on the first night. THE FIRST NIGHT! All these factors put together leave her very threatening while not really offering much to the tribe. Not really a great position to be in, and now there’s only 3 people sitting at the cool table. That’s really not that cool.

18. Brandon Hantz (Last Week: 18)

Brandon, Brenda, and Erik were all on the wrong side of the vote in the first week. At the moment, Brandon could not be taking a worse approach to this situation. When he got back from camp after the vote, he began berating Dawn and wallowing in bitterness. I think it’s interesting to see how Brandon’s responding to being on the outside, because in South Pacific, he was in the majority alliance from day 1. He always had the comfort of majority. If the favourites lose this next immunity, I have no doubt that Brandon will explode, truly going out with a bang as he promised us he will. I can’t entirely explain but I have a bad feeling about Brandon. I wouldn't even be surprised if he hurt somebody before leaving this game. Brandon’s only hope for when the favourites next go to tribal council is if the tribe feels they need to keep the strong challenge competitors.

17. Hope Driskill (Last Week: 16)

I said last week that if Allie were voted off, Hope would be the next fan gone for all the same reasons. However, after Shamar has proven to be such a pain around camp, Hope has a chance to stick around until a little longer. Possibly even until a tribe switch.

16. Shamar Thomas (Last Week: 15)

I don’t think Shamar understands how survivor works. This is a game that ultimately can’t be won by unlikable people. Go ahead and look through every single past winner, not one of them was disliked by the jury. You can be a villain and win, you can make an enemy or two, but if the jury simply doesn’t like you, you cannot win. At the moment, Shamar has one friend, Sherri. If he continues to be as lazy and abrasive as he has been so far, he’ll find himself quickly on his way out, despite his contribution in challenges.

15. Brenda Lowe (Last Week: 17)

We didn't see much of Brenda this episode, but as far as I can tell, it appears she’s recovered quite well from the first tribal council. We saw her showing off some of her moves with Phillip, and we saw her having a few laughs with the tribe. However, it still looks like she can’t shake this reputation from her last season of being a big time gamer and a big time strategist.

14. Erik Reichenbach (Last Week: 14)

Another zero-edit from this week. Erik responded well to last tribal council’s vote, I believe. When Brandon approached him about wanting to get some revenge, he listened and entertained him then didn’t act on it, which was the right way to approach the situation. Frankly, Erik should hope Brandon goes crazy since it will take the target off his back for the moment.

13. Eddie Fox (Last Week: 13)

Eddie’s another fan who I don’t feel has watched much survivor. It’s as if he thinks he can just sort of skate by, have a good time, and then have everything work out for him. Maybe this tribal council will kick him into gear and get him playing. Maybe he needed to be grounded a little more. I don’t suspect he’ll be gone any time soon since though since he’s very useful in the challenges and doesn’t appear to annoy anyone too much.

12. Reynold Toepfer (Last Week: 10)

Reynold seems to be full of big plays, both good and bad. In the first episode, he put together a strong alliance, +1. Then he forgot to recruit enough members for that alliance, -1. Then he got way too friendly with Allie on the first night, -1. Then he brought his tribe from behind to win immunity, +1. This week, he lashed out at Shamar in front of the entire tribe, rather than waiting and approaching everyone individually and targeting him, -1. Then he found the hidden immunity idol, +1 then he forgot to hide it properly -1.

11. Julia Landauer (Last Week: 11)

The only player to have a zero-edit two weeks in a row, and I still don’t really know what to say about her. She’s in the majority, and as far as I know, she isn't ruffling any feathers, so at least she hasn't made any clear mistakes yet.

10. Andrea Bhoelke (Last Week: 8)

Andrea didn't do anything wrong to drop two places, it’s simply that a few others did enough good to overtake her. It seems Andrea’s getting along well with alliance and she responded well to receiving votes in the first tribal council. I still maintain that being targeted early isn't a big concern for Andrea in the near future. Parvati was targeted early in the first Fans versus Favorites, and if Jonny Fairplay hadn't quit (definitely a quit), she most likely would have been the first boot.

9. Laura Alexander (Last Week 9^th)

What I like about Laura is that she really has her head in the game. She’s constantly got an eye on everyone, observing and absorbing what’s happening around her, and that’s a great skill to have in Survivor. I was impressed when she spotted Reynold’s “bulge”. I’m undecided though whether it was a good move to bring it up at tribal council. Personally, I think I would have held onto the information for a little longer, and waited until it benefited me a little more. Laura’s only real concern in the near future is physical strength. If she proves to be useless in challenges, her tribe may figure she’s expendable, but with Hope still around and Shamar still causing waves, I don’t see this being an issue.

8. Phillip Shepard (Last Week: 7^th)

Phillip is a delusional socially unskilled weirdo with an overly active imagination. He has these bizarre fantasies of spies and secret covert missions that are reminiscent of recess in primary school. But despite all this, I don’t think you can deny its helping build unity among his alliance. As silly as these nicknames are, it’s effective in the way it helps give everyone from his alliance a purpose, a sense of inclusion, and a shared goal. It makes Phillip look ridiculous and I still don’t think he can ever win this game, but I’m thoroughly convinced he can make it to the end again.

7. Sherri Beithman (Last Week: 12^th)

Sherri has proven to be a big time player all of a sudden, and I’m thoroughly impressed. Sherri is the designated older lady of this tribe, and typically the older lady, will be useless in challenges, not have any strategy, and possibly have a break down some time in the first week. But Sherri’s done none of this, she’s thriving out on the island. She’s proven to be competent in challenges, she’s playing Shamar beautifully, she’s being a leader in her alliance without dominating anyone, and she’s the only fan getting along well with absolutely everybody. I think Sherri’s secured her spot for quite some time and at the moment, she’s playing well enough to be a potential winner.

6. Michael Snow (Last Week: 4^th)

Based on what we saw this week, it looks like Michael may not be the leader of his alliance with Matt. It appears he’s taking just a little bit more of a passenger seat. Whether this will help or hinder him, I don’t know, we’ll have to see. Either way, Michael’s in a good position now and I think he’s one of few fans we can assume will go far.

5. Dawn Meehan (Last Week: 2^nd)

Dawn’s little sulk session after tribal was a small reminder of how emotional she can be. Sure, Brandon was being a little tough on her, but there was no reason to cry about it. The last time Dawn played, she really didn't make it that far, which leads me to believe that perhaps she’s not cut out for the emotional strain of 39 days of this game. Nonetheless, I have faith in Dawn, and if she can keep it together, she’s posed to make it deep in this game.

4. Matt Bischoff (Last Week: 6^th)

Wow, this guy has taken me by surprise. Based on his pre-game interviews, I had him pegged as a potential first boot, but I was so wrong. I thought his sensitive side, his interests, and his appearance would alienate him from the rest of his tribe, but so far he’s been received very well from everybody (except Shamar). Of the 6 ‘misfits’, he’s been the one working the best with the cool kids, and it looks as though he’s in the driver’s seat of his alliance.

3. Malcolm Freberg (Last Week: 5^th)

It’s now clear Malcolm’s very much in the thick of his alliance. I would say he’s officially past the stigma of Russel. He appears to be getting along swimmingly with everyone from his alliance. If I were to guess, I’d say he’s trying to appear as though he was just a popular physical threat from his last season, rather than a big time gamer. So far, I’d say everyone has taken the bait, and it really helps that he has the look to go with it. Not to mention, Malcolm is playing Phillip so perfectly, exactly the same way he did to Russel Swan. Let him take that leadership role that he wants so badly, and let him take all the bullets along the way, while Malcolm comes out unscathed.

2. Corinne Kaplan (Last Week: 2^nd)

Not much has changed for Corinne since last week. She’s still in the thick of her alliance, and she still hasn't had any confrontations. Really, I don’t think there’s much more I can say.

1. John Cochran (Last Week: 1^st)

Everything I've just said of Corinne, can be repeated about Cochran. Still his only real concern is his lack of physical contribution. He didn't do anything wrong to have his number 1 spot taken, but a number of people are creeping on him.

Survivor: Caramoan - Week One Power Rankings

20. Francesca Hogi

Francesca made the exact same mistakes as she did last time. She played way too hard right out the gate. I said in my pre-season assessment that if the favorites lost the first immunity challenge, she would be in a very disconcerting position. She should have approached the scenario with a calm and collected demeanour and tried to fly under the rader, a la Malcolm. Instead, she targeted Phillip, which was clearly a decision motivated by personal feelings. Moreover, she then began talking about splitting the votes in case Phillip has an idol. She should have approached the other favorites and told them, “I don’t know why they brought me back, this might as well be my first time playing, you know this game better than me, you call the shots and I’ll follow your lead”. Instead, She caused way too many waves for someone who was clearly on the chopping block. Essentially, her fear of being the first boot, was what caused her to be the first boot, yet again. Well, Francesca, I’m waiting…

(Credit: CBS)

19. Allie Pohevitz

Things are really looking bad for Allie, and I don’t think she knows it. Not only has she formed a minority alliance, but she’s now been getting involved in some “jungle love” with the tribe’s most alpha of alpha males, Reynold. She’s the least physically equipped of the entire ‘cool lunch table’/’mean girls’ alliance who are seemingly yet to comprehend basic arithmetic. Perhaps they believe they’re cool enough to get two votes? Unless Michael and Matt decide to swing to this alliance, Allie and Hope are sure to be picked off. Eddie and Reynold however, are arguably the tribe’s best physical competitors and would definitely be safe for some time. I don’t think Michael and Matt will align with  the cool kids though because they would always be at the bottom of that alliance.

18. Brandon Hantz

(I will be talking about next episode’s preview in Brandon's ranking so read on at your own risk)

This man has no hope now that he’s on the wrong side of the numbers. He would never have gotten so far last time had he not lucked into a day 1 alliance. Considering how early it is in the game, and how malleable the current alliances appear to be, you would think Brandon has plenty of wiggle room to seed his way back into this game. However, if you saw the preview for the next episode, it appears Brandon has taken the single worst and most childish approach imaginable. As the tribe returns to camp after the vote, Brandon tells Erik how he’s feeling “a little revengeful” and how he feels like going “Russel Hantz style”. I’m not going to explain why this is a bad move, I don’t need to.

17. Brenda Lowe

I felt as though Brenda was in a bad situation going into this season, and first impressions suggest no differently. She found herself on the wrong side of the numbers, and as far as I could tell, it seemed as though no one was interested in playing too closely to her. In her first season, she was a dangerous player, reminiscent of Parvati, and there isn’t much in the world of Survivor that is more dangerous than Parvati playing Fans versus Favorites. If Brenda can continue to play a smart low-key game, she’ll be able to outlast Brandon, and perhaps Cochran or Corinne, depending on how badly the favorites feel they need challenge strength. That may be long enough to survive the merge or a tribe switch. However, when there is a change in tribes, that target on her back isn’t going to magically disappear.

16. Hope Driskill

If Allie is the Fans’ first boot, expect Hope to follow right after. She may be able to save an extra vote based on her physical strength but frankly, I really don’t know who the weak links on the fans tribe are just yet. It is definitely in her best interest to not get too close to Eddie.

15. Shamar Thomas

Shamar came out of the gates exactly the way I expected him to. He’s a real hot-head, far too honest and aggressive, and most importantly uncompromising. In Survivor you need to be willing to compromise, take a step back and observe for a moment. Shamar does none of this, he has no filter, and ultimately I can absolutely see this being his demise. However, if he can recover, and learn quickly, he may be able to make it far.

14. Erik Reichenbach

Of all the favorites in the minority alliance, Erik has the strongest chance to survive until a merge or tribe switch. Firstly, he’s not going to self-destruct like Brandon. Secondly, he’s more valuable in challenges than Brandon or Brenda. Thirdly, Erik has a lot of experience with being on the wrong side of a vote, and he has quite a talent for damage control.

13. Eddie Fox

So far, Eddie has shown very little knowledge of how survivor works. It seems he’s either naïve enough to believe this game is easy and he’ll just stroll his way to the end, or he’s not particularly concerned with how well he does and this is more of an adventure for him. Personally, I’m inclined to believe it’s the latter, which frustrates me to no end. I have no real quarrel with people who are bad at survivor, you can’t fault people on that, but I can’t stand people who don’t try their hardest when they’ve been given this opportunity. Eddie needs to realise this isn’t ‘The Real World’, this is ‘Survivor’.

12. Sherri Beithman

Invisible player #1. I can’t really say much about Sherri, and that’s why she’s very much in the middle of the pack. She’s a very big fan, and she understands the game, but frankly I haven’t heard a word from her. All I know is that she’s begun to work an alliance with Julia, Laura, and Michael.

11. Julia Landauer

Invisible player #2. Again, I really can’t say much about Julia for all the same reasons as Sherri. The only reason I’ve put her ahead of Sherri is because she seems physically stronger, and Sherri is the designated older lady for this tribe, though she does seem to be somewhat young at heart. Funnily enough, Julia strikes me as somewhat old at heart, which may be to her advantage seeing as she’s only 21 (20 at the time of filming).

10. Reynold Toepfer

Reynold is clearly a smart, likable, well-spoken, natural leader. He should be higher on this list, but I feel uneasy about him. I think he’s stepped too much into the leadership role too quickly. He’s putting a big target on his back for when the merge comes. Moreover, I think his ego is going to stop him from ever even seeing the danger he’s in. I suspect Reynold will be blindsided early in the merge, possibly even with an idol in his pocket.

9. Laura Alexander

Laura seems very perceptive and very aware of the social dynamics surrounding her. She also seems to be well spoken and likable enough. It’s hard to go into any great deal about how competent a player she is because she also recieved a somewhat invisible edit this first episode. Her biggest concern in the imminent future is her challenge competence. It’s still too soon to say how good she is in challenges but as long as she can avoid any woeful challenge performances, she should be able to go far.

8. Andrea Boehlke

I don’t see the votes Andrea received last night being too big an issue. She escaped the tight vote, and now she’s sitting in what seems to be quite a stable majority alliance. I really think Andrea has a much better head on her shoulders this season. She came in and immediately played strategically albeit a little too aggressively. Hopefully this scare in the first tribal council will remind her to play a little bit more poised.

7. Phillip Sheppard

I really don’t know what to say about Phillip. Some people say he played very well this first episode. I however, think he was playing way too hard to begin which was why Erik didn’t want to work with him. I really do feel his alliance would have flipped on him if he wasn’t the goat to end all goats. Nonetheless, since they have not flipped on him, he’s undeniably sitting in a good spot for now.

6. Matt Bischoff

I was most thoroughly pleasantly surprised by Matt in the first episode. I’ll willingly admit I misread him based on his pre-game interviews and bio. It’s just when someone shows up on survivor covered in ink, claiming he looks up to Rupert, and has a rather phallic beard, I don’t get the best first impression. However, Matt has been most impressive. He’s proven to be a hard worker and he’s done a better job of connecting with his tribe mates than I expected. I thought he would have trouble bonding since he does come across as a bit of a misfit. Perhaps most impressive was how well he handled himself when Shamar was attacking him. I believe Matt and Michael could become a most unsuspecting force to be reckoned with.

5. Malcolm Freberg

He is the new kid on the block, shrouded by the stigma of Russel. Malcolm found himself in a very unique and precarious position heading into this season. I think he managed it absolutely perfectly though. For a big time player, he flew under the radar seamlessly, gave the tribe no additional reason to fear him, and showed just how valuable he was in the challenges. If he can keep cool and not Russel anyone’s jimmies, he should be golden for quite a while. I’ll see myself out now.

4. Michael Snow

I expected Michael Snow to be most impressive of all the fans and thus far, he has not disappointed. Much like Laura, he’s very perceptive and aware. However, Michael seems to have his head a little more in the game so far. He’s seeing things from both sides and analysing the information. I expect him to lay low for some time, and then be willing to make that decisive move to put him in a very strong position. Timing is critical in Survivor and as a big fan, he seems to recognise this. I see a bright future for Michael. Am I the only person getting a Richard Hatch vibe from him?

3. Corinne Kaplan

So far, Corrine has been one of the most impressive returnees. The self-proclaimed bitch has been very friendly and personable early on. Along with Cochran, I think she may be one of the most well received players within the tribe. I think the dominatrix has fit herself most comfortably within the new STEALTH R US alliance. Her only concern is if the favorites continue to lose immunity, she’ll quickly become expendable.

2. Dawn Meehan

(I will be talking about next episode’s preview in this ranking so read on at your own risk)

One half of what is currently the strongest alliance this season. It seems as though Dawn and Cochran are inseparable when it comes to survivor. The two found themselves wonderfully in between two alliances of 4 and ultimately decided to join  Phillip, Corinne, Malcolm, and Andrea who now hold a 6-3 majority over Erik, Brenda, and Brandon. My only concern in regard to Dawn is that in preview for next episode, we see her crying and possibly having a breakdown. The preview was unclear as to the context of the event, but luckily for Dawn, it would appear she was crying in private. Never cry in public in Survivor. Never.

1 . John Cochran

I never would have suspected, but Cochran has a little swagger this time around. Just a little though. Last time, Cochran’s biggest problem was his lack of confidence and insecurities. This time around he seems to be using his self-deprecating humour to his advantage. He’s appearing to be the same old jester who’s just along for the ride, but behind the scenes, he has his head in the game, and ultimately put that final nail in Francesca’s coffin. He has cemented himself very well within his alliance. He is Corinne’s and Dawn’s closest ally, and is definitely getting along favourably with the other members. Much like Corinne, Cochran has to hope his tribe can pull together for a few wins, otherwise, his tribe mates will quickly realise he’s the weak link.


Robert Milner.

References:

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/cast/

Survivor: Caramoan - Assessment of the Favourites

Erik Reichenbach, Survivor: Micronesia (Fans versus Favourites)

I feel good about Erik this season. Firstly, people will keep him around because of his strength in challenges. Secondly, Erik's a nice likable guy that people will want to keep around. Thirdly, he's reliable and loyal. He'll likely find the majority alliance, apply himself and follow their lead. He'll be a listener and won't be calling the shots, keeping the traget off him. Finally, people will underestimate this guy because of one huge mistake. Jeff said as he snuffed Erik's torch "I think that's what we call a life lesson" and I'm certain that's exactly what it was for the poor guy. I can see this guy making it real deep if his alliance has numbers, and then they’ll be kicking themselves that they let this huge challenge threat get that deep. If he’s not in the majority, he will be an early boot after the merge.

Corinne Kaplan, Survivor: Gabon

I believe Corinne's chances depend greatly on whether she can keep her mouth shut. Corinne's clever and she can be charming if she wants to be. However, how clever and charming she will be depends on how pissed off she is. If she can swallow her pride, she can get far in this game. In fact, she may be a popular pick amongst her peers to take to the end if she pulls the same antics as last time and makes some real enemies. Furthermore, she's quite weak in challenges, which is another incentive to take her deep. However, this is a double edged sword and it will put a huge target on her back in the pre-merge game. Especially on a tribe that really only has a few challenge liabilities.

Brenda Lowe, Nicaragua

Every All-Star season, we see a really strong player get voted out real early purely because of the threat they pose. We saw this with Rob Cesternino and Richard Hatch in All-Stars, Yau-Man Chan in the original Fans versus Favourites, and we saw it with Cirie Fields in Heroes versus Villains. I suspect we may see Brenda suffer the same fate in Caramoan. If she wants to avoid this fate, she'll need to learn from her last time out on the island and swallow her pride. Be nice and suck up to people, and keep herself in the loop. Luckily for her, her pre-game interviews suggest she knows this and she's willing to "put away bad Brenda, and show them good Brenda". Another thing she has going for her is her challenge strength. If she can prove to be an asset early on and put the target on someone else's back (Corinne?, Cochrane?), she'll be able to do alright. Unfortunately, she’s on a tribe that is rather strong in terms of challenges, and they may feel they can sacrifice her. Malcolm and Erik are the only challenge dominators, but almost everyone else is more than reliable. I think it would be in Brenda’s best interests if there was a tribe switch or some type of twist quite early on. Once again, I can't help but see her being too big a threat for a second time if she manages to survive the merge. The only way I see her surviving the first or second vote after the merge is if she finds herself leading a very loyal majority alliance. It's possible, she's definitely the type of player who could do it, but it's going to be tough. Personally I don't predict her doing too well this time around. Pre-merge or first to second jury member if things go well.

Andrea Boehlke, Redemption Island

I believe we’re going to see a whole new Andrea this time round. In her first season, she was a little too timid and she played a little too much with heart, rather than brains and as a result she aligned with the wrong people. It’s clear she has a passion for this game and she took it quite seriously last time. I always thought she’d come back stronger if she got the opportunity to play, and her interviews suggest she totally has. Right now she’s coming across very humble and very aware of the mistakes she made and she looks like she’s taking this second chance very seriously, she’s focused, and she’s ready to really step it up this time. I think Andrea’s in a good position because she won’t be perceived as too great a threat, and she won’t be targeted early as a challenge liability. I believe it’ll be in Andrea’s best interest to keep Brenda around, because whatever target is on Brenda’s back will relocate onto Andrea’s once she’s gone. I don’t really see any scenario where Andrea doesn’t make the merge and once the merge comes, I still don’t see her going too early. Say she enters the merge without numbers, she won’t be anyone’s biggest threat, and she won’t be butting heads with anyone, giving her free passage for the first few votes. I see Andrea finishing no worse than 8^th.

Phillip Shepard, Redemption Island

Everyone will approach this nutjob in one of two ways. They may want him gone straight away because of his weakness in challenges, his demeanour around camp, and his completely irrational approach to both people and this game. Or they’ll be trying to take him the end to win an easy million. If Phillip can make the merge, he’ll very likely have a rather easy rode to the finals again. However, in one respect, the goat is a bigger threat than anyone else, because their golden ticket to the end means there’s one less spot left at the finalé. Possibly at some point (Maybe at final 5 or 7) if no one will be able to make a majority vote, they'll vote out the guy that everyone else wants to take to the end. If Phillip makes the merge, this scenario or a really loyal alliance are the only ways I see Phillip not making it to the end. But there is absolutely no way this guy can win the game. None.

Francesca Hogi, Redemption Island

Not a lot can be said about Francesca. I mean really, this might aswell be her first time playing. Last time, she was first voted out and she’s stated she never even watched her survivor experience. She’s also said her goal is to be “the most improved player”, and she very well could be, but she’s going to have to tread very carefully to escape that first vote. Imagine its day 3 and the favourites have just lost the first immunity challenge. They’ve been too busy these last few days establishing their shelter and there’s no majority alliance. No matter who is being targeted, the tribe can’t figure out a way to form a safe majority vote. So what do you do? You make the easiest, simplest, most tempting move and you send poor Francesca packing once again. The first few days are going to be instrumental for Francesca. She has to find the majority alliance and latch on to it. No matter how useless and dysfunctional that alliance might be, she needs to stick with the numbers. Francesca was too vocal and too confrontational the last time she played and that is why she was targeted so early. She’ll need to learn to swallow her pride and keep her mouth shut if she wants to succeed next time. Pride does not help you at all in the game of Survivor. Other than that, I have very little to say about her odds, because frankly, I don’t know how she plays Survivor.

John Cochran, South Pacific

Honestly, I have no idea where this guy is going to fall. He could be first voted out, or he could be the sole survivor. He will be an early target because of his challenge weakness, as he said in his pre-game interview “I bring nothing to the table”. But this is just another example of the hurdles Cochran will have to overcome if he wants to find success this time around. He absolutely must dial down all his social anxiety, self-deprecating humour, and insecurities if he wants to have a shot at winning this game. With almost all good survivor players, I believe they need to tone down their confidence, stay humble and a little bit more grounded. Cochran however is the complete opposite, he needs to take off. I know he will never be an alpha, but he can be so much more than an omega. If Cochran can make the merge, he’ll find himself in quite a good spot since he poses absolutely no challenge threat (except maybe in a survivor trivia challenge (which may happen, it did in the last Fans versus Favourites)). But if he hopes to make it to the end, he needs to form those bonds within his alliance, and get people actually wanting to play the game with him and ultimately go with him to the end. If he does make it to the end and he has learnt from his past mistakes and played a more dominant game, he really could win it all. The saddest thing is that he knows what changes he needs to make, but it’s not as simple flicking a switch, all of these flaws are things he’s probably been trying to change about himself his whole life.

Dawn Meehan, South Pacific

I believe Dawn’s previous season has left her in a very good position. In South Pacific, she proved to be reliable in challenges, reliable around camp, and most importantly, reliable to her alliance. The only way Dawn doesn’t make the merge is if her tribe goes on a serious losing streak. Once the merge comes she may hang around for quite a while because of her loyalty and predictability. However, there is no way anyone will let the personable middle aged mom who adopted 6 kids and works hard sit in front of that jury. She’s well spoken, she’s unlikely to have made any enemies on the jury, and I doubt she’ll play the game deceitfully. She may be taken up until final 5. The only way she can get to the end from there is with an immunity run or a really foolish alliance (and I mean REALLY foolish). Something like Phillip, Brandon, and a couple of these fans.

Brandon Hantz, South Pacific

Much like Brandon’s demeanour, his chances in this game are erratic. Last time he got lucky to be in a day one alliance that lasted. The man is a liability and can be manipulated. People will either try utilise this and keep him around all the way to the end, or they’ll try get rid of him early. I suspect Brandon will be able to last a while, because he’s useful enough in challenges, and his tribe is really lacking in terms of brute strength. Seriously, just look at Shamar, the man is a mountain. Once the merge comes, he should be able to avoid the chopping block for long enough. If he’s on the right side of the numbers, he may go to the end because he’s unlikely to get votes. If he’s on the wrong side of the numbers he should still last a while as long as he doesn’t stir trouble. In summary, Brandon could fall anywhere between 16^th place and a spot at final tribal council, but he will not win the game. Some suspect Brandon may have matured and calmed down a little since his first season. Sure, he’s a little older now but he’s still a very young man, and since he last played he’s had a lot of trouble staying out of the headlines for all the wrong reasons. The last two years, and his recent interview with Dalton Ross aren’t all too reassuring to his chances this time around.

Malcolm Freberg, Philippines

The stigma of Russel, be damned, I like Malcolm’s chances here. Everyone’s worried because Malcolm is the first player since the infamous Ruzzel Hantz, to play back to back seasons without his fellow contestants having any idea what he did in his previous season. But I don’t see this being an issue, because you could spend 5 minutes with Malcolm and know he is absolutely nothing like Russel. And do you really think Andrea, Brenda, and Corinne would want to get rid of Malcolm early? This fear of the unknown will only have people concerned for the first few boots, and frankly, the favourites would have to be insane to boot Malcolm that early, since he’s arguably their strongest physical competitor. Not to mention, he has played in that exact location before. He knows where to catch the fish, he knows where to find fruit, he knows the weather patterns, and he knows how to make a flintless fire. The guy is just too indispensable to be booted early. I believe the biggest disadvantage for Malcolm playing back to back is that he has never gotten to see his own season. He hasn’t had the chance to properly reassess his performance, and learn from what he did wrong. Luckily for Malcolm, he really never did much wrong last time. I believe he is the most talented competitor of all the returnees. Once the merge comes, he has this ability to divert attention and turn the crosshairs on someone else. Say he comes into the merge with numbers and gets to final 6 or so with his alliance, he has a very good chance to go on an immunity run and win his way the finale. Let’s just hope there are no silver balls in his way. In summary, I believe Malcolm has the best chance of all the contestants this season and I am not at all biased because of my man-crush on him, I swear.

Robert Milner.